McCain's Last Chance

In politics you have a choice.  you can either play offense or you can play defense.  Offense is better.

In August, McCain's campaign was widely seen as flailing.  He had no coherent message and was falling in the polls.  Then, on July 3rd came Steve Schmidt and message discipline.  He introduced two clear themes; one positive, that McCain puts country first, and one negative, that Obama is just a vapid celebrity.

The result was a steady improvements in polling for McCain.  According to Karl Rove's calculations, on July 1, McCain was trailing by 91 electoral votes.  By September 19 (two weeks after the conventions) McCain was leading by 11 electoral votes.  Without any intervening outside crisis, going on offense with clear consistent messaging created a 102 electoral vote swing.

Then came the intervening outside crisis.  Since the financial crisis began, McCain's numbers have fallen off a cliff.  Rove has McCain loosing 111 electoral votes in the past two weeks.

Conventional wisdom is that economic trouble favors the Democrats and there is some truth in that.  But in a crisis people also want strong, steady leadership.  McCain's fall was not due to the crisis itself.  He has fallen because his response was erratic.  He abandoned clear messaging, while Obama refused to be distracted from his game plan.

McCain is in a hole, but still has a month to dig his way out.  Given the 30 second news cycle, now that the bailout plan has passed the crisis atmosphere should rapidly dissipate.  This gives McCain an opportunity to regain his footing and get back to what worked.

Steve Schmidt's first task is to choose the message.  Celebrity won't work anymore, all the juice has been squeezed from that stone.  An effective attack message needs to build on a kernal of pre-existing doubt.  It's much easier (and more effective) to make voters focus on a negative thought they already believe than to persuade them to believe something they currently don't.  The obvious options are:

1) Obama is not honest - This could be used in commercials by split screening Obama's contradictory statements on at least a dozen issues.

2) Obama is too liberal -

3) Obama is too inexperienced - With the current level of disgust at our politicians, voters may think Washington experience is not something they want.  Plus, Hillary tried this and it didn't work.