Florida Doesn’t Matter

The Republican nomination for President has already been decided, and no one seems to notice.

The conventional wisdom is that if John McCain wins Florida his momentum going into super Tuesday on February 5 will be unstoppable and he will roll to the nomination, but if McCain loses Florida, the race will be thrown into chaos. The conventional wisdom is wrong and it’s easy to see why if you stop and look carefully at the various possibilities that lie ahead.

Right now, the average of the Florida polls show McCain ahead of Romney by a slim 1 point with both of them going up. Giuliani is five points back in third place and dropping like a rock. In the absence of an electoral earthquake, there are only two possible outcomes for Florida. Either McCain will beat Romney by a few points with Giuliani in a disappointing third place finish, or Romney will beat McCain by a few points with Giuliani in third.

Where the pundits get it wrong is in their understanding of the consequences of a McCain loss. Yes, if McCain wins Florida he is unstoppable, but if McCain loses Florida he is guaranteed the nomination just the same.

Let’s assume that Romney wins Florida, with McCain in second place, and Giuliani in third. On first glance, a bad night for John McCain. In reality, it gives him the nomination. Giuliani has said repeatedly that he will win Florida, and his advisers have admitted privately that if he does not win or come in a very close second he’s out of the race. With either a McCain or Romney victory in Florida, Giuliani will either officially drop out or become a zombie, (i.e. everybody will know he’s dead except him), and the bulk of Giuliani’s voters will move to their second choice, John McCain.

Look at the big super Tuesday states. In California McCain leads Romney by 9 points. In New York he leads by 10, in New Jersey by 15, in Pennsylvania by 23, and in every one of those states Giuliani has more support than Romney. Even assuming that the gap between McCain and Romney narrows by a few points after being edged out in Florida, the votes McCain will pick up from former Giuliani supporters will more than make up the difference.

John McCain becoming the nominee does not depend on his winning Florida, it depends on Giuliani losing and being forced out of the race. The minute that happens, the GOP race is over.