So we have a new immigration bill. The left doesn’t like it, the right hates it, and the middle …well, they aren’t so hot about it either. And yet it seems destined to pass and become law. Since there is so much emotion around illegal immigration, it seems highly unlikely that this new bill will make the issue go away.
So after the legislation is passed, where does the debate go?
The biggest problem with the 1986 reform was that the “promise” of enforcement to prevent future illegal immigration in exchange for amnesty, wasn’t kept. Conservatives are desperate not to let that happen again, so we’re starting to hear rumblings about the next big fight. Enforcement.
Since the right has already been burned once, they are going to be obsessive about the enforcement provisions of the new law. They will be looking for the first microscopic hint of backsliding and when they find it, conservatives are going to scream bloody murder.
When the enforcement fight starts (about 9 seconds after the bill is signed), Republicans are going to be looking for a leader to save them from a repeat of 1986. There is going to be an opportunity for a major Republican presidential candidate to grab the issue and become that leader.
That’s where Rudy comes in. The only thing standing between him and the nomination is low support from the right wing of the party, so he would benefit from showing leadership on immigration enforcement more than any other candidate. He also has the most credibility in the party as being tough on crime. The biggest criticism of Giuliani as Mayor was that he was, if anything, too ruthless in enforcing the law.
If Giuliani positions himself as the tough as nails crime fighter who can enforce the law and shut down illegal immigration, the right wing of the party will line up behind him in a New York minute.
The only question is, will he see the opportunity and take it?
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